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Read the prediction of premier league results, the scorers in the match, half time and final time prediction on Premier league betting tips detailed page.
One tip before making your reliable football forecasts. After this little explanation, our football experts offer you three essential tips to succeed in your football forecasts. Take advantage of them, our specialists apply them throughout the year.
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Read the prediction of Italy Serie A league results, the scorers in the match, half time and final time prediction on Serie A prediction detailed page.
Do not take the football tips for granted. Analyse and make the decision by yourself !
Our passionate football experts and specialists help you to bet every day with the reliable forecasts and free advice about football. Do you want to win more often by betting on football? Discover the essential elements to consider before making your football forecasts and the best ways to use betting bonuses, casino bonuses, as well as poker bonuses.
Before reading the three essential tips to succeed in football sports forecasts, you should know that the first stage before betting is to calculate / estimate / appreciate the reliability of your forecast. To do this is very easy, compare the odds proposed by the bookmakers on your forecast with the odds of it being carried out. Specifically, let's imagine that you want to bet on the Real Madrid match against Real Betis, in which Real Madrid is your favorite. In this case, the safest forecast will be the victory of Madrid, because Real is more gifted in quality than Real Betis. The odds of a victory for meringues are greater than that of Betis. In this precise case, if the odds proposed by the Spanish betting house is 1.50 for a Real Betis victory (then it is a Real Madrid defeat), the "Betis Victory" forecast will not be considered reliable. Do not forget to analyze the odds before making your predictions in football, it is very important. To do this, here is a list of free tips to keep in mind before betting.
Read the prediction of Spain La Liga league results, the scorers in the match, half time and final time prediction on La Liga league prediction detailed page.
The example: Against all odds, one day in March 23 the Colombian team defeated France 2-3 in their own stadium after losing by two goals. According to the betting portal, Colombia has lost both times it has played against France. The bets were 1x2 and they calculated that there would be more than three goals in the match. Beyond the passion and fervor for the tricolor, would you have opted for Colombia? To provide a better tool for punters, two researchers from University, developed a statistical method to make more accurate predictions in terms of football results. In a match of the English football league, of similar proportions of favoritism of France vs Colombia, the surprising result confirmed the method. “When we started to see if the method worked in real life, the defeat of Chelsea (which came from being a champion) against a newly promoted team occurred. It is not that the algorithm predicted this result, it simply indicated that the bet on Burnley was worth buying, ”said football expert.
Football experts, said the idea came out of intellectual curiosity, before the 2014 World Cup in Brazil began. The system was developed with the Bayesian methodology and Kelly's criteria, which allows them to look at how the odds of the betting results behave. “What we did was: take information from the bookmakers, which we turn into probabilistic estates and take that probability to combine it with historical information on the results of the matches we want to bet on. That is known as Bayesian econometrics " From there, they define which matches to bet on, for which the recommendation offered by the model is taken to define how much to bet. The above based on the methodology in finance known as Kelly's Reason.
“This basically tells us, of our monetary stock, what proportion we should bet on the game we already determined. Between the forecasting methodology and Kelly's Reason we define how much to bet, but we must also have a rule of when to stop, ”said expert.
This rule is defined by a criterion called 'black swans', which is identified when the return associated with a bet is greater than four times the deviation of previous bets. ”That is, when we identify a bet that gives us too much money , which indicates that it is very unlikely to meet her again, there we stop, ”he explained. He added that while it is a model that is based on probabilities, they confirmed that "it worked very well with the Premier League in three seasons giving us excellent rates of return."
It is freely accessible - After having published their method in indexed scientific journals of outstanding academic level, the researchers developed an application so that anyone, with the appropriate data, can apply the algorithm.
“I decided to program and interface the betting method in case people want to use it without having to sit down to program for seven hours. People download the information, load it into the application, click on it and get the results, ”expert said.
"The idea was not to sell, but to have a good time doing it, so that anyone can place their own bet, once they have the data, the algorithm indicates the percentage to bet on or by whom, or if there is no attractive bet," he concluded. the investigator.
As a technological development that has worked well, but is at the risk of anyone who wants to use it, this is how the method developed by the pair of researchers was summarized.
For his part, football expert said that those who wish to use the result of this research to predict results in the World Cup in Russia, "can do so by previously obtaining the appropriate information through bookmakers and specialized sites."
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